Pakistan-US-China Trilateral Relations in the Context of Evolving Geo-Strategic Calculus of Asia-Pacific

Abstract

This paper finds out the evolving nature of Pakistan’s relations with United States and China. The geographical position of Pakistan being at the intersection of South Asia, Central Asia, and the Indian Ocean provide it with strategic advantage as well as challenges amid escalating competition between Washington and Beijing. Through the framework based on the hedging theory and the middle power model, the paper investigates the way Pakistan copes with the intricate balance between its deep security and economic reliance on China, and its unequal relationship with the United States. This paper analyses the nexus between trade policy, critical mineral security, and U.S. foreign relations. Pakistan’s strategic calculus appears to be driven by a confluence of key variables including economic vulnerability, persistent security threats, technological reliance, and internal political strife. All these factors, explain the limitations of the manoeuvring power of Islamabad on the international front. The results indicate that hedging provides a certain leeway to Pakistan in the short run, but more structural weaknesses particularly economic and political in the long run. This makes Pakistan incapable of realizing real autonomy in both economic and political domains.  The paper argues that Pakistan’s ability to follow this strategy will largely rest on its economic strength, reforms in governance and its capacity to deal with the growing security challenges in the Asia-Pacific calculus.

Keywords: Pakistan foreign policy, China-US rivalry, Hedging theory, Indo-Pacific, CPEC.