Agricultural Land Expansion and Food Security in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract

This study empirically investigates the impact of agricultural land, urbanization, GDP, food import, and credit to the agricultural sector on food security in Pakistan. The study employs Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model (ARDL) bound testing procedure to estimate the impact of these factors on food security from the period1990 to 2016. Following the literature, we have employed two dimensions of food security: food availability and food accessibility. Food availability is measured by food supply (kcal/capita/day) while food accessibility is measured by food price indices. The results indicate that agricultural land, GDP growth, and credit to the agricultural sector have a positive and an increase in urban population has a negative impact on both dimensions of food security however, food imports have a positive impact on food availability and a negative on food accessibility in the country.