Growth Instability and Forecasting of Non-Frozen Citrus Juice Export from Pakistan: A Markov Chain Approach

Abstract

The retention and switching behavior of the importing nations are regarded as critical for the exporting nations to keep their consistency as well as growth, where random variables, i.e., the export of non-frozen citrus juice in this study from Pakistan, play an important role. Therefore, in this study, we endeavor to examine the behavior of the big five importers (i.e., Afghanistan, the United States of America (USA), the United Kingdom (UK), the United Arab Emirate (UAE), and Germany), where Pakistani exports constitute above 50 percent of its non-frozen citrus juice. For measuring the occurrence probability of a random variable, the Markov chain analysis is applied to the time series data from FY 2013–14 to FY 2019–20 collected from secondary sources. The Markov chain process with the transition probability matrix (TPM), the compound annual growth rate (CAGR), the coefficient of variation, and the Cuddy Della Valle instability index (CDVI) have displayed interesting results. The TPM results for non-frozen citrus juice exports in terms of quantity revealed that the United States, other countries, Afghanistan, the United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom demonstrated the highest retention level and are consistent with Pakistan's non-frozen citrus juice exports. In terms of quantity, according to the results of the CAGR, except for Afghanistan and other countries, the remaining importing countries showed growth. The results of CDVI in terms of quantity showed inconsistent growth for all the importing nations for the exports of non-frozen citrus juice from Pakistan.