An An Agent Based Model for Combining the Climatic, Physical and Behavioral Response to Logging, Salinity, and Farmers Earnings in Irrigated Agriculture of Pakistan

Abstract

Framers use excessive groundwater to meet surface water shortfall in irrigated agriculture of Pakistan. This water use behavior is creating inequalities in Pakistan across time and space in farmer’s profit and water quality-quantity balances. The system becomes more fragile under extreme physical and climatic vagaries. We have developed an agent-based model (ABM) to assess how system dynamics related to farmer’s profit waterlogging and salinity parameters will change under extreme climatic and physical events if business-as-usual (BAU) water use behavior is practiced. The model indicates that more ground and surface water use doesn’t bring more earnings considering the size of farmers. And also, inequality rises more under rising temperatures and low rains. Hence, we have identified that governing the water use behavior can increase water availability and water quality at the tails and heads of the irrigation system by rationalizing area-wise groundwater and surface water use tariffs and subsidies.