Direction and Destination Pattern of Fresh Oranges Export from Pakistan: A Markov Chain Approach

Abstract

Current study is an endeavor to examine the behavior of the big five Pakistani oranges importers i.e., Afghanistan, Ka-zakhstan, Russia, the UAE, and Ukraine. For measuring the occurrence probability of a random variable, the Markov chain analysis is applied to the time series data from FY 2013–14 to FY 2019–20 collected from secondary sources. The Markov chain process with the transition probability matrix (TPM), the compound annual growth rate (CAGR), the coefficient of variation, and the Cuddy Della Valle instability index (CDVI) have displayed interesting results. Based on the TPM, the study concludes that, in terms of quantity, Afghanistan and the UAE showed the highest retention levels and remained consistent. However, the CDVI of all the importing nations for the exports of fresh oranges from Pakistan displayed inconsistent export growth. This study demonstrated the significance of Markov chain theory and its application in the Pakistani context for behavioral prediction of importing countries. This study measures the retention behavior of importing countries, and the results showed that Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine are not willing to import fresh oranges from Pakistan in the future. Regulations and directions that can increase fresh oranges production and exports, as well as alternative management strategies and policies to improve fresh oranges exports in Pakistan, are required.